Coffee with Catt: Issue #6 | Mexico: Silver Bullets
“Buy when there’s blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own” is attributed to Baron Rothschild, an 18th century British nobleman and member of the Rothschild banking dynasty.
Silver Bullets
While no one is surprised Mexico’s narco gangs are killing each other, it is unusual for miners to get caught in the crossfire as they have lately south of the US border.
My bullish call on Mexico, the world’s largest producer of gold’s racy little brother — SILVER — has been wrong because of politics and security.
Prompted by my mother asking whether she should keep her underperforming Mithril Silver & Gold shares, I offer this review of Mexico and some of my favourite Mexican miners.
Mexican silver developers have had a shocking 2026, performing between 36% and 55% worse than peers
“It’s safe” (trust me)
“It is safe to come to Mexico,” Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said recently, touting “a great deal of work done” in co-ordination with fellow World Cup hosts the US and Canada.
Cartels Vs Trump
Guadalajara, the capital of Jalisco State in Mexico, was the scene of violent protests in February after “El Mencho”, the head of the Jalisco Cartel, was killed in a Mexican-US government joint operation.
The Mexican President is caught between loyalty to her party and demands from the Trump administration to hand over various alleged gangsters, including a serving state governor in Sinaloa Province and nine other officials on drug charges.
US President Trump met Mexican President Sheinbaum at the FIFA 2026 draw
It’s a sensitive time for Mexico as the USMCA (United States, Mexico, Canada — formerly NAFTA) trade agreement is due to be reviewed on July 1st.
How Mexico lost - and won back - silver
A quick refresher on the history of mining in Mexico for context:
In 1961 Mexico nationalised its mining industry, requiring 51% local ownership until 1990. Foreign mining companies left, spending collapsed, and mining stagnated.
1992–2018 was the golden period for Mexican mining as 100% foreign ownership was allowed and Mexico joined the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).
Goldcorp, Newmont, First Majestic, Pan American, Fresnillo and Endeavour invested tens of billions. Mexico reclaimed world #1 silver status and entered the top 10 in copper and gold.
The 2014 imposition of a 7.5% royalty slap was absorbed by the mining industry, which turned the other cheek.
Until 2019 the Mexican government was generally pro-mining, labour unions were in check, and the cartels kept to themselves.
Politics, unions and cartels
Politics
Between 2019–2024 the AMLO presidency banned new open-pit mines, nationalised the budding lithium industry in 2022, and reformed the mining law, which crashed Mexico’s Fraser Institute ranking from 37th to 74th out of 86 jurisdictions.
Labour
Newmont’s Penasquito Mine, the world’s largest silver producer, was stopped for four months by labour unions in 2023, causing Penasquito’s silver, gold and zinc output to fall 50%.
Cartels
Narco violence hit the front page in 2026 when, tragically, ten of Vizsla Silver’s workers were confirmed dead or missing from Vizsla’s Panuco Silver Project in Sinaloa State.
Despite all the gloom, production of Mexico’s top three minerals by volume — gold, silver and copper — has been roughly flat from 2020–2025 (CAMIMEX).
Gold, silver and copper output in tons 2020-2025 (CAMIMEX)
Mexico top three mineral production by VALUE (CAMIMEX):
How important is mining to Mexico?
CAMIMEX, the Mexican Chamber of Mines, reports that in 2025 mining accounts for about 3% of GDP, or 5% if metal processing and fabrication are included.
Thankfully for Mexico, the prices of silver, copper and gold have roughly doubled during the 2020s despite flat production.
Is Mexico investable again?
Mixed.
Mexico’s President Sheinbaum, who was elected in 2024 for a six-year term until 2030, can only move as quickly as her party politics allow. Sheinbaum ran on a continuation of her political mentor AMLO’s policies.
There have been some modest permit extensions for existing Mexican mines, but no major new mines have yet been permitted by Sheinbaum’s administration.
Discovery Silver awaits an environmental permit from Mexico’s SEMARNAT regulator for Cordero, the world’s largest undeveloped silver reserve. Agnico and Teck are also awaiting a permit for their San Nicolás mine.
In February, Mexican Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard met Canada’s trade minister in Mexico City and said they were getting on with business in the second half of 2026:
“We are preparing during the next month the action plan between Mexico and Canada in order to expand investment, increase commerce, reduce regulatory difficulties or obstacles, and facilitate investment.”
— Marcelo Ebrard
If you know what that means, you are a better man than me — but at least Canada and Mexico are talking. This should help Canadian miners get Mexican permits.
Shot Down
Recently John Skeet, CEO of Mithril Silver & Gold — one of Mrs Catt’s favs — was shot down while his plane was returning from its Copalquin Project in the Sierra Madre or “Mother Mountains” (Market Update)
Luckily no one was hurt and the Mexican military has now apparently rounded up the local offenders.
This is a plane taking off from Mithril’s Copalquin Project in the Sierra Madre Mountains last June, similar to the plane in which John was shot down.
Here is John Skeet (far left of photo) and yours truly on site at Mithril’s Copalquin Project in Mexico in June 2025.
Recently Cattcalls spoke with Mithril CEO John Skeet to find out what it was like being shot down.
We asked John and his newly joined Head of Exploration from Coeur Mining (SilverCrest), Jim Barr, what was happening on the ground at Mithril’s Copalquin property.
So what should Mrs Catt do with her Mithril shares?
Mithril shareholders, including Mrs Catt, are hoping for a fabulous new high-grade gold and silver discovery.
While they are waiting, Mithril shareholders can take comfort from the current ~530,000 ounce gold equivalent resource at Target 1, which Mithril has indicated will soon grow.
Catt Calls, with Claude’s help, took the November 2025 Vizsla-Panuco and March 2026 Blackrock Silver Corp-Tonopah technical reports for up-to-date real-world cost and capital estimates and scaled them for Mithril’s smaller Target 1 project (let me know if you would like the full model).
Vizsla, like Mithril, has had a Mexican discount applied to its share price for direct — and in Vizsla’s case tragic — contact with the local cartels. Mithril and Vizsla are both about 50% behind the GDXJ VanEck Junior Gold Miners Index in 2026.
I used a 20% discount rate for Mexico (Vizsla and Mithril) and 10% for the USA (Blackrock Silver) to build an NPV model for Vizsla, Blackrock Silver and Mithril — all single-project companies.
The side by side comparison of Vizsla/Panuco, Blackrock/Tonopah West and Mithril/Target 1 resources highlights similar resource grades of 6gpt gold (+340gpt silver) equivalent. Panuco is a much larger project with 150 million ounces silver equivalent versus 30 million for Tonopah West and 29 million resource ounces for Mithril.
How much do shareholders pay per ounce of silver resource?
Blood on the charts
The 50% underperformance of Vizsla and Mithril share prices in 2026 after their brush with cartel violence has left Vizsla trading at about US$6 per silver ounce compared to Blackrock Silver in Nevada, USA, at about US$10 per ounce.
Mithril is looking mispriced at about US$1 per ounce.
Catt Calls prefers Vizsla Royalties as the preferred exposure to Vizsla’s world-class Panuco Project.
Vizsla Royalties owns a blended 2.75% royalty over the Panuco project’s future 15 million ounces of annual silver production.
Allowing two years for Panuco to “cool off”, hence a delay to full production until 2030, discounted at 5%, is worth US$180/C$250 million and a single-asset silver royalty of this quality should trade at 1.5x NPV.
That implies Vizsla Royalties, at C$3 per share today, is trading at about half of its fair value of C$6 per share.
Ludicrous in ’26
Catt Calls picked Advance Metals as one of its “Ludicrous in 26” picks and, like Mithril and Vizsla, Advance’s share price performance has been distinctly “Mexican” in 2026, down about one third.
Advance’s impressive maiden 33 million ounce silver equivalent resource at its Yoquivo Project demonstrated growth.
Next, Advance will be drilling its Gavilanes silver project near the fabled San Dimas silver mine in Mexico, a cornerstone First Majestic asset.
San Dimas has produced over 11 million ounces of gold and 580 million ounces of silver.
Advance’s total silver ounce inventory across its three Mexican projects is now 116 million silver equivalent ounces.
Advance’s current A$44 million valuation implies less than US$0.30 per ounce of silver equivalent resource.
Ludicrous.
Catt Calls recently caught up with Advance CEO Adam McKinnon to ask him about likely news flow from Mexico and its high-grade Victoria, Australia exploration efforts.
Football World Cup ceasefire?
The opening match of the world’s most watched sporting event — the FIFA Football World Cup — will be played in Mexico City on June 11th.
Footballers, miners and all of Mexico will be hoping for an incident-free World Cup.
Catt Call — Mexico deserves some good times
Mexico is deservedly known for great football, tacos and silver.
My bet is Mexico will take good care of the visiting gringos and will find a way through the USMCA Free Trade Agreement review on July 1st.
Taking Baron Rothschild’s advice to buy “when there is blood in the streets”, I have been increasing my shareholding in my favourite Mexican silver explorers and developers — Mithril, Advance and Vizsla Royalties.
Silver and gold are finishing their correction and headed to all-time highs in the coming months.
Viva Mexico.